The US dollar is regaining momentum after the Commerce department upgraded its first quarter GDP estimate from 0.7 percent to 1.2 percent. The U.S. Federal Reserve was already considering the slowdown a transitory one as per the minutes from its May meeting that were released on Wednesday. US political risk is keeping the USD from taking off as the Russian connection probe is now targeting Trump’s son law Jared Kushner. The price of gold has risen as investors look for a safe

We are coming off the heels of an interesting week for the U.S. dollar which ended the week stronger versus the British pound, weaker versus the New Zealand dollar and basically unchanged against other major currencies. This divergence can be explained by the market’s fading confidence in the Federal Reserve. Fed Fund future are pricing in 100% chance of a June hike but data and the FOMC minutes suggest otherwise so investors are waiting for a reason to swing one way or the o

The U.S. dollar traded higher against most of the major currencies this past week. Unfortunately the strength was driven by risk aversion and not healthier data. This can be confirmed by the fact that the Australian dollar was the worst performer and the Japanese yen the best performer. High beta currencies tend to perform poorly when investors are nervous whereas the yen is generally bid up under these same conditions. Geopolitical risks are front and center for forex trader

The U.S. dollar traded lower against all of the major currencies with the exception of the Australian dollar. This divergence is a sign of risk aversion and not a function of Australia’s economy as there were no major economic reports released this past week. The RBA minutes were also optimistic. The only other explanation for AUD’s underperformance is the decline in iron ore prices. The best performer was the Japanese yen and the British pound. The former rose on risk aversi

The USD is weaker against major currencies across the board after the Fed hiked rates for the third time since the financial crisis but lacked upgrades to the economic projections. A proactive but patient Fed, with other central banks standing pat, meant the forward looking FX market came away with a less hawkish view on future US interest rates and sold the USD despite a 25 basis points hike to the benchmark rate. Fed member speeches during the week will give the central ban

The U.S. dollar traded lower across the board this past week. The best performers were the Australian dollar and British pound but outside of the euro, nearly all of the major currencies appreciated more than 1% against the greenback. Who would have thought that when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp, the U.S. dollar would tank? But that was exactly what happened this past week as the greenback tumbled against all of the major currencies. Investors began unwin

The USD dropped versus majors after the much anticipated rate hike at the end of the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points as expected, but did not alter economic projections and Fed Chair Janet Yellen was less hawkish than the market expected given her comments in the buildup to the policy meeting. A week filled with central bank activity continues with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy rate in overnight trading to be followed by th

The only currency that did not end the week higher against was the euro and that was because of the ECB. The commodity currencies were hit particularly hard while the sterling crumbled under the weight of Brexit. The week ahead will be another busy one with four central bank rate decisions, Australia and the U.K.’s employment report and the possible trigger of Article 50 on the docket. Investors took profits on their long U.S. dollar positions on the back of Friday’s non-farm

The U.S. dollar rose against major currencies on Tuesday ahead of employment data to be released this week. Comments from U.S. Federal Reserve members quickly shifted the expectations on the actions of the central bank when they meet next week. Chair Janet Yellen has made clear waiting for too long to hike could be a mistake. On February 14 Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said that “rates need to rise more briskly than the markets now seem to expect” as indicators such

No doubt, one of the key topics of conversation at this month’s RBA board meeting was around housing market conditions and the ongoing rebound in the rate of capital gains over the second half of 2016 and first two months of 2017. The CoreLogic monthly hedonic index shows capital city dwelling values have increased by 7.8% since the May ‘16 rate cut. The renewed exuberance in the housing market over the past eight months is due to more than just low mortgage rates. The reacce