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Jun 8, 2017
2 min

How Will Markets React to the UK General Elections 2017?

When Theresa May called a snap election on April 18, polls indicated a comfortable 20 point lead for the Conservative party and a safe bet in her attempts to increase her party’s majority. Market sentiment soared, however, the tightening of the polls in the lead-up to the elections calls for a closer look on how the markets could be affected by each outcome. A Conservative majority is still considered the most likely scenario and it is therefore expected to be interpreted as

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May 29, 2017
2 min

Holidays in UK and US will compress busy trading week

The US dollar is regaining momentum after the Commerce department upgraded its first quarter GDP estimate from 0.7 percent to 1.2 percent. The U.S. Federal Reserve was already considering the slowdown a transitory one as per the minutes from its May meeting that were released on Wednesday. US political risk is keeping the USD from taking off as the Russian connection probe is now targeting Trump’s son law Jared Kushner. The price of gold has risen as investors look for a safe

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May 29, 2017
4 min

Week Ahead - May 29, 2017

We are coming off the heels of an interesting week for the U.S. dollar which ended the week stronger versus the British pound, weaker versus the New Zealand dollar and basically unchanged against other major currencies. This divergence can be explained by the market’s fading confidence in the Federal Reserve. Fed Fund future are pricing in 100% chance of a June hike but data and the FOMC minutes suggest otherwise so investors are waiting for a reason to swing one way or the o

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Mar 27, 2017
4 min

The U.S. Dollar Could Fall Further & Week Ahead

The U.S. dollar traded lower against all of the major currencies with the exception of the Australian dollar. This divergence is a sign of risk aversion and not a function of Australia’s economy as there were no major economic reports released this past week. The RBA minutes were also optimistic. The only other explanation for AUD’s underperformance is the decline in iron ore prices. The best performer was the Japanese yen and the British pound. The former rose on risk aversi

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Mar 20, 2017
3 min

Week Ahead - Dollar Drops After Rate Hike

The USD is weaker against major currencies across the board after the Fed hiked rates for the third time since the financial crisis but lacked upgrades to the economic projections. A proactive but patient Fed, with other central banks standing pat, meant the forward looking FX market came away with a less hawkish view on future US interest rates and sold the USD despite a 25 basis points hike to the benchmark rate. Fed member speeches during the week will give the central ban

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Mar 20, 2017
4 min

Forex Market Review - Weekly 20/3/2017

The U.S. dollar traded lower across the board this past week. The best performers were the Australian dollar and British pound but outside of the euro, nearly all of the major currencies appreciated more than 1% against the greenback. Who would have thought that when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp, the U.S. dollar would tank? But that was exactly what happened this past week as the greenback tumbled against all of the major currencies. Investors began unwin

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Mar 15, 2017
3 min

Fed Expected to Raise US Interest Rates

The USD is higher across the board awaiting the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate statement on Wednesday, March 15, at 2:00 pm EDT (6pm GMT). Fed speakers went out of their way in making sure they telegraphed the central banks’ decision as the market expected a more patient Fed given the Trump administration has not launched its tax stimulus and infrastructure spending policies. The CME FedWatch tool based on Fed fund rate futures shows the market has l

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Feb 1, 2017
2 min

Bank of England Expected to Raise Growth Forecasts on Thursday

It’s been more than seven months since the UK voted to leave the European Union in a referendum that will change the shape of the country for years and despite strong warnings in the run up to the vote, the economy is still ticking along nicely. This should make Super Thursday another interesting affair for Bank of England Governor Mark Carney as he faces the very journalists he delivered those warnings to and has since faced some tough questions from. The central bank is exp

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